NH Primary Day Update

The first few votes have been cast and counted in two small towns in New Hampshire...here are the results:

McCain: 10
Huckabee: 5
Paul: 4
Romney: 3
Giuliani: 1

I'd love to see this particular finishing order play out, but these towns don't generally tend to be very good bellweathers for the whole state. (Wesley Clark won them in 2004, but Kerry won big overall)

Most polls right now (and there are several) have McCain with a pretty solid lead, Romney in second, and Huckabee in third with Paul and Giuliani hovering around 3rd-4th. Thing is though, there has been so little time since the Iowa caucuses and the two debates this weekend. Weekend polling is notoriously unreliable, especially for Republicans, so we really don't have a complete picture right now of the situation in New Hampshire.

I think it is pretty likely that McCain wins and probably wins by 8+ points. However, the feeling on the ground is that Romney's crowds dwindled and Huckabee's crowds have swelled to tremendous proportions. Will that translate into votes? Could we even dare to dream of a 2nd place finish? Honestly, I expect us to finish 3rd or possibly even 4th, depending on the depth of Ron Paul's support.

However, as I said earlier, the situation on the ground is very fluid. Romney is not making very many friends right now and interest is rising in Huckabee. Here are the scenarios as I see them:

If McCain loses here, his last hope is Michigan. If he loses there, it is over for the senator. A McCain win means he has a good shot at taking Michigan, which keeps him in the ballgame. He needs to win both to have any realistic chance of winning the nomination.

If Romney wins, his campaign is re-energized and he just might take Michigan as well, setting up a do-or-die moment for Huckabee in SC. If Romney finishes second, he lives to fight another day in Michigan, which become a must win for him. If Romney finishes third or worse, it will be the story of the day and will be played as a tremendous collapse. I don't see how his campaign recovers for a 3rd or worse. He's got the cash to stick around, but his support will bleed quickly.

If Huckabee finishes 3rd or 4th, no big deal. Expectations are low for him here and no one will be surprised or will write his obituary. He can finish second or even third in Michigan without major damage as well, but will absolutely need to take SC and FL to win the nomination. If Huckabee finishes 2nd ahead of Romney, it will be huge and may cement his position as the Republican frontrunner. He would prove once again that big money does not result in wins. Second place means that Romney is marginalized and the nomination will come down to Huck vs. McCain. He could still take MI, which I think would set off a chain reaction that would carry through to SC and FL. Super Tuesday would become a formality and the nomination would be Huckabee's.

So, by my analysis, the pressure today is on Mitt Romney. He has the most to gain or the most to lose. McCain needs the win but has one more shot in Michigan next week. Huckabee can finish further back and still have several paths to the nomination available.

One thing of which I do feel certain...we will enter Florida at the end of the month with only two realistic contenders. And sorry, Mr. Mayor, neither will be you.