Pre-Caucus Update

Again, sorry it has been so long between updates...getting adjusted after the holidays and vacation, but here we go!

Polling

So, so much has happened in the last two weeks in the campaign that I am not even going to try to hit everything. The race in Iowa has tightened, as expected. Most polls show Huckabee in the lead or in second within the margin of error. The only poll I want to link to is the most reliable for Iowa, the Des Moines Register.

Iowa/Des Moines Register Poll

Huckabee 32%
Romney 26%
McCain 13%
Paul 9%
Thompson 9% (Ouch! That's gotta hurt Fred!)

While we are at it, John McCain has surged ahead in many New Hampshire polls to a close second or even into the lead against Mitt Romney. Many of the NH and Massachusetts papers have come out strongly against Romney and his terrible record in MA. NH independents who loved McCain 8 years ago are coming back to him now. Romney is in serious trouble if he loses both IA and NH. Michigan will become a must win situation and the latest polls there show Huckabee with a slight lead, thanks to some support from his social conservative base and some union support. Huckabee will be a more formidable candidate there with an IA win under his belt. I still maintain that a 3rd place finish in NH is a good finish for Huckabee, and it looks like with the rise of McCain and the fall of Giuliani, that is a strong possiblitly.

To Attack or Not To Attack?

You may have heard of the Negative Ad Incident, in which Huckabee prepared a negative ad on Mitt Romney, then decided at the last minute to withold the ad. At first, it really bothered me. It seemed like a cheap political stunt, however, it seems to have gone over well with Iowans who appreciated that Huckabee was willing to do the right thing, even if it cost him money. I felt much better about it after reading the following article and interview with Ed Rollins with the Washington Post. It seems that the natural political fighter in Rollins convinced Huckabee that it was time to swing back at Romney and Huckabee grudgingly made the ad. On Monday morning, Huckabee decided that he just couldn't release it with a clear conscience. However, there was already a news conference scheduled, which Huckabee went through with and explained the situation. He did show the ad to the reporters gathered, but did not release it for TV or web viewing. There are some copies out there on YouTube if you are really curious, but out of respect for the wishes of the campaign, I won't post it here.

A stumble? Perhaps, but I'd rather my candidate stumble doing the right thing than stumble doing the wrong thing...

Link to WaPo

Huck and Leno

Jay Leno returns tonight for the first time due to the writer's strike and guess who his guest is? Without writers, the format of the show will be quite different and perhaps Mike will get a chance to really shine in that kind of venue. Leno is the highest rated late night host (sorry, Dave) and Huckabee does really well in one-on-one interviews. This should get massive ratings and really help Mike get his message out across the nation. This was a HUGE coup for the campaign and should help him as we move on in the primary schedule.

Jay Leno come on at 11:35 pm EST.

Hunter for Huckabee???

I respect Duncan Hunter and his stand on the major issues of the day. He is a good man and a solid conservative, however his presidential bid has never really gotten off the ground. Had it, I could have easily supported him. He is polling in the 1-2% range right now, and although he is optimistic, he knows that he is probably not long for this campaign.

Congressman Hunter has had some good words to say about Governor Huckabee, though, leading to speculation that if he drops out after Iowa or New Hampshire, he will possibly endorse Huckabee. He doesn't bring too many supporters with him, but he is well respected in foreign policy circles and that cannot do anything but help Huckabee. I think that Hunter would make an excellent Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security in a Huckabee Administration...