New Polling Data

The race continues to tighten in Iowa as people begin to settle into their candidates right before Christmas:

Rasmussen Iowa

Huckabee 28%
Romney 27%
McCain 14%
Giuliani/Thompson 8%

(It should be noted that Giuliani has pretty much pulled out of Iowa and McCain has recently decided to return and ramp up his campaign there. The question is, if McCain surges, where does his support come from?)

It seems that Romney's attacks have had some effect in Iowa, but with that campaign showing no signs of slowing down the Huckabee bashing, at what point do voters become disgusted with the negativity, especially here at Christmas? Will McCain take from Romney? What about Fred, who is launching a bus tour around the state?

Although it looks good for Huckabee in Iowa, there is still work to be done before he wins the caucus there.

Now, on to New Hampshire...

Rasmussen New Hampshire

Romney 31%
McCain 27%
Giuliani 13%
Huckabee 11%

Now, on the surface, things don't look good for Huckabee in the Granite State. But, this is a must-win state for Romney...if he loses IA and NH, he is essentially through. But look at who now sits in second place...McCain. He has surged in the state that was very friendly to him back in 2000. Some key newspaper endorsements have given him new life in NH. The thing is, though, this is really his only realistic shot to win a state in the primaries except for Arizona. So his role here is more of a spoiler to the Romney camp than serious contender for the nomination.

Best case scenario in NH for Huckabee: Coming off a win in Iowa, he surges a bit in NH to third place. Romney now looks shaky after a second in Iowa pushing a few more voters over to McCain. McCain wins a squeaker with Romney in second and Huckabee vaulting past Giuliani in third. No one really expects McCain to do well in SC, Huckabee is seen as a winner and as having a surprisingly strong showing in a very libertarian state, and Romney has now lost two primaries where he has dumped a tremendous amount of money.

Huckabee can go on to win SC and possibly MI. If he wins MI, then Romney is truly and thoroughly done. The momentum of being a winner can carry Huckabee into a win in FL where polls show him now overtaking Giuliani. So now, we enter Super Tuesday. It is basically Huck vs. Rudy. The down side is, Rudy has won nothing to this point. People will tend to at this point vote for the perceived winner. Rudy may take NY, NJ or other Northeastern states, but Huckabee sweeps the South and Midwest and either wins CA outright or has a strong enough showing there to take enough delegates that Rudy is pretty much done.

So, on the morning of February 6th, Mike Huckabee, for all intents and purposes, is the Republican nominee. Sound crazy? :)