The first few votes have been cast and counted in two small towns in New Hampshire...here are the results:
McCain: 10
Huckabee: 5
Paul: 4
Romney: 3
Giuliani: 1
I'd love to see this particular finishing order play out, but these towns don't generally tend to be very good bellweathers for the whole state. (Wesley Clark won them in 2004, but Kerry won big overall)
Most polls right now (and there are several) have McCain with a pretty solid lead, Romney in second, and Huckabee in third with Paul and Giuliani hovering around 3rd-4th. Thing is though, there has been so little time since the Iowa caucuses and the two debates this weekend. Weekend polling is notoriously unreliable, especially for Republicans, so we really don't have a complete picture right now of the situation in New Hampshire.
I think it is pretty likely that McCain wins and probably wins by 8+ points. However, the feeling on the ground is that Romney's crowds dwindled and Huckabee's crowds have swelled to tremendous proportions. Will that translate into votes? Could we even dare to dream of a 2nd place finish? Honestly, I expect us to finish 3rd or possibly even 4th, depending on the depth of Ron Paul's support.
However, as I said earlier, the situation on the ground is very fluid. Romney is not making very many friends right now and interest is rising in Huckabee. Here are the scenarios as I see them:
If McCain loses here, his last hope is Michigan. If he loses there, it is over for the senator. A McCain win means he has a good shot at taking Michigan, which keeps him in the ballgame. He needs to win both to have any realistic chance of winning the nomination.
If Romney wins, his campaign is re-energized and he just might take Michigan as well, setting up a do-or-die moment for Huckabee in SC. If Romney finishes second, he lives to fight another day in Michigan, which become a must win for him. If Romney finishes third or worse, it will be the story of the day and will be played as a tremendous collapse. I don't see how his campaign recovers for a 3rd or worse. He's got the cash to stick around, but his support will bleed quickly.
If Huckabee finishes 3rd or 4th, no big deal. Expectations are low for him here and no one will be surprised or will write his obituary. He can finish second or even third in Michigan without major damage as well, but will absolutely need to take SC and FL to win the nomination. If Huckabee finishes 2nd ahead of Romney, it will be huge and may cement his position as the Republican frontrunner. He would prove once again that big money does not result in wins. Second place means that Romney is marginalized and the nomination will come down to Huck vs. McCain. He could still take MI, which I think would set off a chain reaction that would carry through to SC and FL. Super Tuesday would become a formality and the nomination would be Huckabee's.
So, by my analysis, the pressure today is on Mitt Romney. He has the most to gain or the most to lose. McCain needs the win but has one more shot in Michigan next week. Huckabee can finish further back and still have several paths to the nomination available.
One thing of which I do feel certain...we will enter Florida at the end of the month with only two realistic contenders. And sorry, Mr. Mayor, neither will be you.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Friday, January 4, 2008
Carl Cameron on the Huckaboom
Fox News has been notoriously negative toward Governor Huckabee in this election season, but reporter Carl Cameron has some interesting insights into the Huckabee win in Iowa:
"Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters."
Full Blog Here
This is a nice counterpoint to those who believe that Huckabee won solely on the strength of evangelical Christians, of whom 47% voted for him...leaving the other 53% to vote for someone else? He had to have had strong support outside that group. We shall see how that translates in New Hampshire.
"Christian conservatives do not explain the whole Mike Huckabee win.
His authenticity and populist message struck a chord with heartland middle income and blue collar values voters."
Full Blog Here
This is a nice counterpoint to those who believe that Huckabee won solely on the strength of evangelical Christians, of whom 47% voted for him...leaving the other 53% to vote for someone else? He had to have had strong support outside that group. We shall see how that translates in New Hampshire.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Thoughts on Iowa
Such a huge night...I expected a Huckabee win, but I thought it would be close...9 points! Wow...the work is not over yet. There is a debate this weekend in New Hampshire and expect Mitt Romney to pull out the longest of the long knives for not only Huckabee, but also McCain. He has nothing to lose, has already gone negative, and has repeatedly shown he has absolutely NO regard for truth or honesty or personal integrity when it comes to winning elections. But, I trust Mike Huckabee. He has shined in debates thus far, and I think he will continue to do so this weekend.
The big Obama win will really shake up things on Tuesday. Will independents flock to him, or will they go to the old standby of John McCain? Will Rudy's non-presence (in hindsight, possibly a fatal move) combined with Huckabee's big win push Huck into a strong 3rd in NH? Hillary is on the ropes and Republicans have finally realized we don't need "America's Mayor" to take her down.
I think we see a close McCain victory in NH on Tuesday and a stronger than expected third for Huckabee. The questions will arise louder as to whether or not Romney can maintain any type of momentum at all. Michigan is the next big contest and McCain has been strong there in the past. Huckabee actually has an insignificant lead there already so that will be a McCain/Huck battle for first. SC is next, where the faded Thompson hopes to make his last stand, if he even stays in the race that long. Huckabee will win SC versus McCain and with two, possibly three wins under his belt, should beat Giuliani in Florida at the end of the month.
This victory tonight is a great one, but it is only the first battle...the war is not won yet...although the path become a bit clearer...
**Oh, and watch the money ticker at the top of this blog...it was at $60k at caucus time...over $130,000 as of this posting!!!
The big Obama win will really shake up things on Tuesday. Will independents flock to him, or will they go to the old standby of John McCain? Will Rudy's non-presence (in hindsight, possibly a fatal move) combined with Huckabee's big win push Huck into a strong 3rd in NH? Hillary is on the ropes and Republicans have finally realized we don't need "America's Mayor" to take her down.
I think we see a close McCain victory in NH on Tuesday and a stronger than expected third for Huckabee. The questions will arise louder as to whether or not Romney can maintain any type of momentum at all. Michigan is the next big contest and McCain has been strong there in the past. Huckabee actually has an insignificant lead there already so that will be a McCain/Huck battle for first. SC is next, where the faded Thompson hopes to make his last stand, if he even stays in the race that long. Huckabee will win SC versus McCain and with two, possibly three wins under his belt, should beat Giuliani in Florida at the end of the month.
This victory tonight is a great one, but it is only the first battle...the war is not won yet...although the path become a bit clearer...
**Oh, and watch the money ticker at the top of this blog...it was at $60k at caucus time...over $130,000 as of this posting!!!
VICTORY!!!
Huckabee wins Iowa!!!
UPDATED:
Ok...the rush of the moment has come and gone and now it is time to look at the results:
With 85% of precincts reporting, here it is. I will update when it hits 100%.
HUCKABEE: 34%
Romney: 25%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 13%
Source: CNN
UPDATED:
Ok...the rush of the moment has come and gone and now it is time to look at the results:
With 85% of precincts reporting, here it is. I will update when it hits 100%.
HUCKABEE: 34%
Romney: 25%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 13%
Source: CNN
Huckabee on Leno 1/2/08
Mike Huckabee was the first guest on the return of Jay Leno tonight sans writers. Mike took a little flack for crossing the picket line to be on the show, but I don't think that will have much effect on most people. Both Huckabee and Jay Leno repeatedly have expressed their support for the writers (as do I) and Huckabee made the point in a news release that he only went on knowing that there were no "scabs" writing...all was done by Leno himself.
Anyway, on to the meat of the interview...classic Huckabee...he was very fluid, cool, collected and humorous. There was a video of him being interviewed by Leno 7 years and 110 pounds ago that got some laughs and an opening for Mike to talk about the health crisis in America. Mike also got a chance to simply explain the benefits of the Fair Tax, which got him a round of applause from the audience. And of course, he got to join the Tonight Show band and jam on the bass a little. All in all, I think that many people across the country probably got their first look at Mike Huckabee tonight, and got to see the best he has to offer.
Link to the transcript from the Official Blog (video to follow later)
Anyway, on to the meat of the interview...classic Huckabee...he was very fluid, cool, collected and humorous. There was a video of him being interviewed by Leno 7 years and 110 pounds ago that got some laughs and an opening for Mike to talk about the health crisis in America. Mike also got a chance to simply explain the benefits of the Fair Tax, which got him a round of applause from the audience. And of course, he got to join the Tonight Show band and jam on the bass a little. All in all, I think that many people across the country probably got their first look at Mike Huckabee tonight, and got to see the best he has to offer.
Link to the transcript from the Official Blog (video to follow later)
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Interactive Poll
Eric Odom over at ConservaBlogs.com has the latest RCP Interactive Poll up.
Go here and be sure to vote Huckabee!
Go here and be sure to vote Huckabee!
Pre-Caucus Update
Again, sorry it has been so long between updates...getting adjusted after the holidays and vacation, but here we go!
Polling
So, so much has happened in the last two weeks in the campaign that I am not even going to try to hit everything. The race in Iowa has tightened, as expected. Most polls show Huckabee in the lead or in second within the margin of error. The only poll I want to link to is the most reliable for Iowa, the Des Moines Register.
Iowa/Des Moines Register Poll
Huckabee 32%
Romney 26%
McCain 13%
Paul 9%
Thompson 9% (Ouch! That's gotta hurt Fred!)
While we are at it, John McCain has surged ahead in many New Hampshire polls to a close second or even into the lead against Mitt Romney. Many of the NH and Massachusetts papers have come out strongly against Romney and his terrible record in MA. NH independents who loved McCain 8 years ago are coming back to him now. Romney is in serious trouble if he loses both IA and NH. Michigan will become a must win situation and the latest polls there show Huckabee with a slight lead, thanks to some support from his social conservative base and some union support. Huckabee will be a more formidable candidate there with an IA win under his belt. I still maintain that a 3rd place finish in NH is a good finish for Huckabee, and it looks like with the rise of McCain and the fall of Giuliani, that is a strong possiblitly.
To Attack or Not To Attack?
You may have heard of the Negative Ad Incident, in which Huckabee prepared a negative ad on Mitt Romney, then decided at the last minute to withold the ad. At first, it really bothered me. It seemed like a cheap political stunt, however, it seems to have gone over well with Iowans who appreciated that Huckabee was willing to do the right thing, even if it cost him money. I felt much better about it after reading the following article and interview with Ed Rollins with the Washington Post. It seems that the natural political fighter in Rollins convinced Huckabee that it was time to swing back at Romney and Huckabee grudgingly made the ad. On Monday morning, Huckabee decided that he just couldn't release it with a clear conscience. However, there was already a news conference scheduled, which Huckabee went through with and explained the situation. He did show the ad to the reporters gathered, but did not release it for TV or web viewing. There are some copies out there on YouTube if you are really curious, but out of respect for the wishes of the campaign, I won't post it here.
A stumble? Perhaps, but I'd rather my candidate stumble doing the right thing than stumble doing the wrong thing...
Link to WaPo
Huck and Leno
Jay Leno returns tonight for the first time due to the writer's strike and guess who his guest is? Without writers, the format of the show will be quite different and perhaps Mike will get a chance to really shine in that kind of venue. Leno is the highest rated late night host (sorry, Dave) and Huckabee does really well in one-on-one interviews. This should get massive ratings and really help Mike get his message out across the nation. This was a HUGE coup for the campaign and should help him as we move on in the primary schedule.
Jay Leno come on at 11:35 pm EST.
Hunter for Huckabee???
I respect Duncan Hunter and his stand on the major issues of the day. He is a good man and a solid conservative, however his presidential bid has never really gotten off the ground. Had it, I could have easily supported him. He is polling in the 1-2% range right now, and although he is optimistic, he knows that he is probably not long for this campaign.
Congressman Hunter has had some good words to say about Governor Huckabee, though, leading to speculation that if he drops out after Iowa or New Hampshire, he will possibly endorse Huckabee. He doesn't bring too many supporters with him, but he is well respected in foreign policy circles and that cannot do anything but help Huckabee. I think that Hunter would make an excellent Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security in a Huckabee Administration...
Polling
So, so much has happened in the last two weeks in the campaign that I am not even going to try to hit everything. The race in Iowa has tightened, as expected. Most polls show Huckabee in the lead or in second within the margin of error. The only poll I want to link to is the most reliable for Iowa, the Des Moines Register.
Iowa/Des Moines Register Poll
Huckabee 32%
Romney 26%
McCain 13%
Paul 9%
Thompson 9% (Ouch! That's gotta hurt Fred!)
While we are at it, John McCain has surged ahead in many New Hampshire polls to a close second or even into the lead against Mitt Romney. Many of the NH and Massachusetts papers have come out strongly against Romney and his terrible record in MA. NH independents who loved McCain 8 years ago are coming back to him now. Romney is in serious trouble if he loses both IA and NH. Michigan will become a must win situation and the latest polls there show Huckabee with a slight lead, thanks to some support from his social conservative base and some union support. Huckabee will be a more formidable candidate there with an IA win under his belt. I still maintain that a 3rd place finish in NH is a good finish for Huckabee, and it looks like with the rise of McCain and the fall of Giuliani, that is a strong possiblitly.
To Attack or Not To Attack?
You may have heard of the Negative Ad Incident, in which Huckabee prepared a negative ad on Mitt Romney, then decided at the last minute to withold the ad. At first, it really bothered me. It seemed like a cheap political stunt, however, it seems to have gone over well with Iowans who appreciated that Huckabee was willing to do the right thing, even if it cost him money. I felt much better about it after reading the following article and interview with Ed Rollins with the Washington Post. It seems that the natural political fighter in Rollins convinced Huckabee that it was time to swing back at Romney and Huckabee grudgingly made the ad. On Monday morning, Huckabee decided that he just couldn't release it with a clear conscience. However, there was already a news conference scheduled, which Huckabee went through with and explained the situation. He did show the ad to the reporters gathered, but did not release it for TV or web viewing. There are some copies out there on YouTube if you are really curious, but out of respect for the wishes of the campaign, I won't post it here.
A stumble? Perhaps, but I'd rather my candidate stumble doing the right thing than stumble doing the wrong thing...
Link to WaPo
Huck and Leno
Jay Leno returns tonight for the first time due to the writer's strike and guess who his guest is? Without writers, the format of the show will be quite different and perhaps Mike will get a chance to really shine in that kind of venue. Leno is the highest rated late night host (sorry, Dave) and Huckabee does really well in one-on-one interviews. This should get massive ratings and really help Mike get his message out across the nation. This was a HUGE coup for the campaign and should help him as we move on in the primary schedule.
Jay Leno come on at 11:35 pm EST.
Hunter for Huckabee???
I respect Duncan Hunter and his stand on the major issues of the day. He is a good man and a solid conservative, however his presidential bid has never really gotten off the ground. Had it, I could have easily supported him. He is polling in the 1-2% range right now, and although he is optimistic, he knows that he is probably not long for this campaign.
Congressman Hunter has had some good words to say about Governor Huckabee, though, leading to speculation that if he drops out after Iowa or New Hampshire, he will possibly endorse Huckabee. He doesn't bring too many supporters with him, but he is well respected in foreign policy circles and that cannot do anything but help Huckabee. I think that Hunter would make an excellent Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security in a Huckabee Administration...
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