Now What?

(Decided to split up the Super Tuesday analysis into two posts)

So, where do the candidates go from here?

McCain: The numbers give the impression that he is on the verge of running away with the nomination. But, for better or worse, there is a 20-25% portion of the Republican base who would rather commit political suicide than vote for McCain. Could he win without them? I am not sure that even with his appeal to independents that McCain could compete without the passion of the base behind him. He will lag in fundraising and volunteer support and that will cost him on election day. McCain has to hope that he can mend enough fences to get back 10 or so percent of those voters. But I fear that is not an option at this point. He will have to focus on the idea that he is electable and hopefully stop Huckabee from gaining any more momentum than he has right now.

Romney: Oh, boy, things look kind of bad right now for Mittens. Sources say he has poured over $35 million of his own cash into this campaign. Pundits are predicting he will drop out. I think he stays in a bit longer and hopes that an anti-McCain surge will carry him to some wins. But if fundraising doesn't pick up, he will have to decide how much more he can pour into this sinking ship. The Talk Radio Republicans have to make a choice now. Will they continue to back Romney, even though voters repudiate him? Or will they go for the lesser of two evils and try to use Huckabee to take down McCain? My guess is that they will go down with Romney. It is a dangerous game for them to play...if McCain wins the election, they are marginalized as out of touch. If McCain loses, they can tout that they were right, but at the cost of President Clinton/Obama's liberal policies which the Democratic congress will gladly approve. Pyhrric victories all around...

Huckabee: He gets another chance at trying to position himself as the anti-McCain. Huck has proven he is a winner or is competitive in traditional Republican states. If he can snag wins in LA and KS, he could very well put Romney out of the race. Huckabee voters can point to these wins as reasons to keep supporting him rather than going to Romney to stop McCain. He was very close to winning OK and MO in addition to everything else. Huckabee needs to position himself as the viable alternative to John McCain. He can do this without resorting to the negative attacks that Romney uses. Huck speaks at CPAC on Saturday morning. He really needs to hammer home his genuine conservative credentials to show that he is not the "liberal" that Limbaugh and his ilk paint him as. If Huckbee can get conservatives to coalesce around him instead of Romney, his chances are better to win the nomination. Huck needs to win at least one of LA or KS to show that he has continued strength.