Friday, February 8, 2008

Bye Bye Mitt!

As everyone knows by now, Mitt Romney took his opportunity to speak at CPAC yesterday as his chance to formally suspend his presidential campaign. It seems that he has his sights set on 2012, a'la Reagan in 1976, however, Reagan stayed in through the convention and won a multitude of states versus Ford. Romney showed that all the money in the world couldn't buy states unless he had lived there or it was a small state caucus.

The media is trying very hard to coronate John McCain, but even he is continually reminding voters that yes, Mike Huckabee is still very much alive in this race. So now, these Limbaugh "conservatives" have a choice. Will they hitch their wagons to Huckabee, as Neal Boortz suggests they do and try to stop Big Mac? Will they suck it up and support McCain anyway? Or will they continue to sit on the sidelines and whine and moan about the sad state of affairs and dream of the increased ratings they will enjoy as President Clinton/Obama take us you know where in a handbasket?

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Now What?

(Decided to split up the Super Tuesday analysis into two posts)

So, where do the candidates go from here?

McCain: The numbers give the impression that he is on the verge of running away with the nomination. But, for better or worse, there is a 20-25% portion of the Republican base who would rather commit political suicide than vote for McCain. Could he win without them? I am not sure that even with his appeal to independents that McCain could compete without the passion of the base behind him. He will lag in fundraising and volunteer support and that will cost him on election day. McCain has to hope that he can mend enough fences to get back 10 or so percent of those voters. But I fear that is not an option at this point. He will have to focus on the idea that he is electable and hopefully stop Huckabee from gaining any more momentum than he has right now.

Romney: Oh, boy, things look kind of bad right now for Mittens. Sources say he has poured over $35 million of his own cash into this campaign. Pundits are predicting he will drop out. I think he stays in a bit longer and hopes that an anti-McCain surge will carry him to some wins. But if fundraising doesn't pick up, he will have to decide how much more he can pour into this sinking ship. The Talk Radio Republicans have to make a choice now. Will they continue to back Romney, even though voters repudiate him? Or will they go for the lesser of two evils and try to use Huckabee to take down McCain? My guess is that they will go down with Romney. It is a dangerous game for them to play...if McCain wins the election, they are marginalized as out of touch. If McCain loses, they can tout that they were right, but at the cost of President Clinton/Obama's liberal policies which the Democratic congress will gladly approve. Pyhrric victories all around...

Huckabee: He gets another chance at trying to position himself as the anti-McCain. Huck has proven he is a winner or is competitive in traditional Republican states. If he can snag wins in LA and KS, he could very well put Romney out of the race. Huckabee voters can point to these wins as reasons to keep supporting him rather than going to Romney to stop McCain. He was very close to winning OK and MO in addition to everything else. Huckabee needs to position himself as the viable alternative to John McCain. He can do this without resorting to the negative attacks that Romney uses. Huck speaks at CPAC on Saturday morning. He really needs to hammer home his genuine conservative credentials to show that he is not the "liberal" that Limbaugh and his ilk paint him as. If Huckbee can get conservatives to coalesce around him instead of Romney, his chances are better to win the nomination. Huck needs to win at least one of LA or KS to show that he has continued strength.

Aftermath

Well...here we sit. The day after Super Duper Tuesday and Huckabee is back in the thick of things. I must confess. My hope had waned. I was not looking forward to yesterday. I feared that it would be over for the best candidate in the race. However, a funny thing happens sometimes when you entrust actual voters with their responsiblity. The pundits and talking heads are proven wrong. Let's look at the results:

Huckabee wins WV, AR, GA, AL and TN.

Romney wins MA, UT, MN, MT, ND, CO and AK.

McCain wins CA, NY, NJ, CT, DE, MO, OK, AZ and IL

What can we glean from these results?

1) McCain is currently the official frontrunner....but look at the states he won. With the exception of MO, OK and AZ, these are faithful blue states. I seriously doubt that even Big Mac has the support to flip NY or CA in November. MO and OK were just narrowly won with Huckabee right on his heels in both. He won his home state of AZ but not by as much as he should have. It is clear now that McCain has the support of liberal and center-left Republicans in the blue states. But whither the conservatives??? Can McCain win without them?

2) Romney is dangerously weakened. Yes, he picked up seven states last night, but did anyone really do any campaigning in any of them? Looking at his wins as a whole, Romney wins when he has a family or religious connection or when he is the only candidate competing in a caucus. The only true primaries he has won are MI, MA and UT. Romney claims that Huckabee is damaging his campaign and taking away votes. But it seems that should be the other way around. More on that later.

3) Huckabee has risen from the political near-dead. Yeah, looking at the tally it seems that Huckabee can only win Southern states. And he has thus far, Iowa notwithstanding. But what is neglected is that for the most part, Huckabee is winning the conservative states. Not bad for a guy who is supposed to be a "liberal." Huckabee is strongest in traditional red states. As much as I would like to see a Reaganesque landslide in 2008, it is just not going to happen. We need to hold on to every single 2000/04 red state and pick up a couple of midwestern states too in order to win in 2008. Romney is a non-factor in the South. McCain pretty much is too, even with the SC win thanks to Fred Thompson.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Final Super Tuesday Polls

Huckabee, after slipping behind in the necessary Southern states, has surged back in some key Super Tuesday states.

ARG Tennessee 2/5/08

Huckabee 36%
McCain 30%
Romney 27%

Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Alabama 2/5/08

Huckabee 38%
McCain 29%
Romney 20%

In addition to these, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas all are close. Good weather, Romney/McCain backlash and the WV win could converge to give Huck wins and valuable delegates in these places. Could it be a better than expected day today??? The momentum in these vital states seems to be shifting...

Win for Huckabee!

The first Super Tuesday state has voted, and the winner is Mike Huckabee!

West Virginia's GOP convention caucused today and Huckabee beat Romney. Romney led the first ballot, but McCain supporters moved over to Huckabee on the second, giving him the win.

Now, Romney supporters are screaming and crying that this was a conspiracy and Huck is just spoiling for McCain, blah, blah, blah. However, my question is this...why is it that the more a state sees Romney and the more he touts organization...he loses? If Romney really were the choice of conservatives, why couldn't he have won on the first ballot and ended it right there?

Sorry Mittens, spending millions and slamming your opponents with lies doesn't equal support.
Mitt Romney learned again today that in primary politics, your enemy yesterday might just need to be your friend tomorrow.

And Mitt hasn't done much to make many friends...

(He is now alleging "back room deals", implying that people actually voting in a state organized caucus is somehow fraudulent...this is going to backfire on Mitt if he is not careful...)

Catching Up

OK, so my earlier predictions were that Huckabee would need to win SC and FL to stay in the race. Unfortunately, he didn't win either, but he is still very much in the game. Thompson influenced SC just enough to allow McCain to eke out a win and gain the momentum needed to take FL. Giuliani's campaign completed its historic collapse in the Sunshine State, after which he dropped out and went for McCain. Romney took Michigan based on not much more than his last name and also took Wyoming and Nevada based on the fact that he was pretty much the only candidate that showed up.

So, here it is Super Tuesday and this is where we stand. McCain is for all intents and purposes the "front-runner". Huckabee and Romney are vying for the conservative votes as McCain takes all the moderate to liberal votes. Romney spends his time whining that Huck is spoiling for McCain, even when polls show that if it were down to he and Big Mac, that McCain would obliterate him pretty much everywhere.

Today's big questions are as follows: Can McCain wrap it up tonight? Will Romney win any states? Will Huckabee win any states? How much longer can either of them stay in after today?

Waaaay Behind...

I am sorry. I have let this blog get way out of date. I traveled out of town for work after New Hampshire, and work has been busy since, and I have just let the blog go. No more...I will strive to keep it more up to date as I did in December...Super Tuesday discussion to follow...